Jump to content


Photo
- - - - -

2025 Population Projection


  • Please log in to reply
4 replies to this topic

#1 jefffwd

jefffwd

    Skyscraper Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,511 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Fort Worth

Posted 05 July 2009 - 10:50 AM

I just saw this in the San Francisco Chronicle... it is about a month old but if we are going to take on this many people we better start getting that regional rail plan and those road improvements underway!

The largest U.S. cities of 2025? SF won't be one: Report
By population alone, San Francisco is fairly puny. Less than one million people live within the city limits, while New York and Los Angeles boast millions of residents.

And while San Francisco, and its more southern neighbor San Jose, are ranked among the largest metro areas in the country, a recent projection from BizJournals suggests that neither San Francisco nor San Jose will rank among the largest metro in the country by the year 2025.

We're not really sure what sort of methodology BizJournals used -- we assume it has something to do with recent population growth rates -- but we're not entirely sold on their projections. Eight cities, they say, will join the "million-plus club between 2005 and 2025." Among them? Raleigh, Tuscon, Fresno, Bakersfield, Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla. and McAllen-Edinburg Texas, Albuquerque and Tulsa. Notably absent? San Francisco. In fact, the Bay Area doesn't make the list of their projections for the largest metros in 2025, while Phoenix, Atlanta and Houston make the cut.

Here are the biggest cities of the future, and their projected populations, as imagined by BizJournals.

New York City - Projected population: 19,818,478

Los Angeles - Projected population: 14,049,577

Chicago - Projected population: 10,233,137

Dallas-Fort Worth - Projected population: 8,750,408

Houston - Projected population: 7,875,220

Atlanta - Projected population: 7,308,508

Phoenix - Projected population: 6,937,737

Miami-Fort Lauderdale - Projected population: 6,590,616

Washington D.C. - Projected population: 6,514,361

Philadelphia - Projected population: 6,091,123





#2 Dismuke

Dismuke

    Skyscraper Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,040 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Fort Worth
  • Interests:Late 19th/early 20th century history, popular culture architecture and music. Collecting 78 rpm records from the 1900 - 1930 era.

Posted 05 July 2009 - 01:46 PM

QUOTE
We're not really sure what sort of methodology BizJournals used


Ever notice that such projections rarely do specify the methodology - or at least as they are reported in the press? To the reader, the numbers are just tossed out there.

I have nothing against such projections. But I am always skeptical. Heck, find very many people today who can agree on whether what we are going through right now is the early states of a prolonged and nasty depression or whether it is something that we will, at some point in the not so distant future, recover from. Nobody KNOWS for sure. Obviously the outcome of something like that is going to have a major impact on pretty much ANY projection one does in terms of population and economic growth.

QUOTE
but we're not entirely sold on their projections. Eight cities, they say, will join the "million-plus club between 2005 and 2025." Among them? Raleigh, Tuscon, Fresno, Bakersfield, Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla. and McAllen-Edinburg Texas, Albuquerque and Tulsa. Notably absent? San Francisco. In fact, the Bay Area doesn't make the list of their projections for the largest metros in 2025, while Phoenix, Atlanta and Houston make the cut.


That is interesting. According to a quick google search, the metro population of San Francisco is around 7,533,384. The smallest on the list of 2025 population projections is Philidelphia at 6,091,123. That suggests that the BizJournals is expecting the San Francisco area to experience a rather significant decline in population between now and 2025. I know that California is going down the toilet and people are rushing to get out - but that is pretty amazing.


Radio Dismuke
1920s & 1930s Pop & Jazz
24-Hour Internet Radio
www.RadioDismuke.com


#3 Dismuke

Dismuke

    Skyscraper Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,040 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Fort Worth
  • Interests:Late 19th/early 20th century history, popular culture architecture and music. Collecting 78 rpm records from the 1900 - 1930 era.

Posted 05 July 2009 - 01:57 PM

QUOTE
Eight cities, they say, will join the "million-plus club between 2005 and 2025." Among them? ....and Tulsa.



According to a quick google search, Tulsa currently has a population of around 591,982. That would be VERY significant growth. In one respect, it wouldn't surprise me. I have been very impressed by that city based on my visits and consider it to be a largely undiscovered gem. The city is charming as heck and filled with a surprising amount of remarkable architecture - especially for a city of its size. I haven't been there enough to get a feel for what the people are like there. But I suspect that they are not all that different than those found in Fort Worth. If I had to relocate to a city outside of Texas, Tulsa would definitely be on my list of ones to consider.
Radio Dismuke
1920s & 1930s Pop & Jazz
24-Hour Internet Radio
www.RadioDismuke.com


#4 tjh1

tjh1

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 122 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 20 January 2010 - 05:00 PM

QUOTE (Dismuke @ Jul 5 2009, 01:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Ever notice that such projections rarely do specify the methodology - or at least as they are reported in the press? To the reader, the numbers are just tossed out there.

I have nothing against such projections. But I am always skeptical. Heck, find very many people today who can agree on whether what we are going through right now is the early states of a prolonged and nasty depression or whether it is something that we will, at some point in the not so distant future, recover from. Nobody KNOWS for sure. Obviously the outcome of something like that is going to have a major impact on pretty much ANY projection one does in terms of population and economic growth.


Well said. I tend to take pretty much all longterm population projections with a grain of salt--history is pretty difficult (if not impossible) to predict and is dependent on countless economic, social, geographical, and other factors that can change substantially in as short of a time as two decades. For instance in the early 1900s, there were some who foresaw Chicago surpassing New York City to become the nation's largest city, while in the 1920s, Detroit's population growth could have predicted that the city would surpass Chicago to become the largest in the Midwest--obviously neither of these things have happened.

By looking at the predictions made by BizJournals, it looks as though they simply took an MSA's growth from the past couple decades and assumes that similar growth will continue indefinitely. For all anyone really knows, cities such as Phoenix & Las Vegas could decline into shells of their former selves, St. Louis & Cleveland could reverse decades of decline & experience substantial growth, or current small cities such as Mobile or Boise could emerge as the next million+ metros. Any longterm predictions are rather subjective since there are so many factors that can play a role in a city's future.




#5 SLO

SLO

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 227 posts

Posted 29 January 2010 - 09:44 PM

QUOTE (Dismuke @ Jul 5 2009, 02:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
QUOTE
We're not really sure what sort of methodology BizJournals used


Ever notice that such projections rarely do specify the methodology - or at least as they are reported in the press? To the reader, the numbers are just tossed out there.

I have nothing against such projections. But I am always skeptical. Heck, find very many people today who can agree on whether what we are going through right now is the early states of a prolonged and nasty depression or whether it is something that we will, at some point in the not so distant future, recover from. Nobody KNOWS for sure. Obviously the outcome of something like that is going to have a major impact on pretty much ANY projection one does in terms of population and economic growth.

QUOTE
but we're not entirely sold on their projections. Eight cities, they say, will join the "million-plus club between 2005 and 2025." Among them? Raleigh, Tuscon, Fresno, Bakersfield, Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla. and McAllen-Edinburg Texas, Albuquerque and Tulsa. Notably absent? San Francisco. In fact, the Bay Area doesn't make the list of their projections for the largest metros in 2025, while Phoenix, Atlanta and Houston make the cut.


That is interesting. According to a quick google search, the metro population of San Francisco is around 7,533,384. The smallest on the list of 2025 population projections is Philidelphia at 6,091,123. That suggests that the BizJournals is expecting the San Francisco area to experience a rather significant decline in population between now and 2025. I know that California is going down the toilet and people are rushing to get out - but that is pretty amazing.


Despite the tone of the article, the Bay Area population will increase over that time period. San Francisco's metro population does not include San Jose, its broken up....it'll be somewhere around 8 million.




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users