27 replies to this topic

[elpingüino]

The American Society of Landscape Architects writes about the pandemic leading to downtown revitalizations as malls and big boxes struggle and as newly unemployed restaurant/retail workers take advantage of low rents to open their own new businesses.

https://dirt.asla.or...-street-retail/

[roverone]

It's probably just me, but I read all of the words of this article, and I found it difficult to follow the assumptions and logic and conclusions that are reached.

 

I don't know that anything made me bristle terribly, but I did not feel like the ideas had adequate support.  I don't think it adequately accounts for the possible economic situation of consumers / customers and how much that will contribute / force their decisions.

[Doohickie]

It seems like around here, the majority of restaurant closings cite high rent prices and the landlords' refusal to compromise.

[Doohickie]

In a recent Forbes article,

 

That's not an article, it's an opinion piece.

 

Traditionally, fear of failure has held people back from starting a business, but with so many having their jobs swept away due to the pandemic, that fear is gone for many people, who realize they no longer want to rely on an employer for the rest of their careers, and instead want to take on the challenge of leading their own companies.

 

I don't think this follows.  The fear is not about losing one's job, the fear is financial difficulties (which losing one's job can cause).  The answer is not necessarily to go into business for yourself, which can be risky in the best of times, and endanger your finances even more.  I can see a small percentage going into business for themselves to try to get through this, but not the majority.

 

Malls will struggle in the wake of COVID-19. Being inside an enclosed bubble will not be the ideal situation for most shoppers for the foreseeable future. Morning Consult reports that 24 percent of U.S. consumers fear shopping in malls for at least the next six months due to the COVID-19 threat.

 

The medium term is *not* the long term.  The writer is talking about businesses that will accommodate the next six months, but no legitimate business plan would limit itself to that in such uncertain times.  This does not necessarily indicate a long term trend.

[renamerusk]

It's probably just me, but I read all of the words of this article, and I found it difficult to follow the assumptions and logic and conclusions that are reached.

 

I don't know that anything made me bristle terribly, but I did not feel like the ideas had adequate support.  I don't think it adequately accounts for the possible economic situation of consumers / customers and how much that will contribute / force their decisions.

 

You expressed generally some kind of objection, but you don't specify or provide explanations of what conclusions you find to be illogical; this is hardly fair.

 

[Doohickie]

So basically just like political dialogue these days.

[renamerusk]

I think it is not really like political dialogue.  In politics there is always something that you are "for" based on the result that you are aiming to achieve.

[roverone]

I just very much felt like the opinion piece was not supporting its conclusions.  Did you read it and feel differently?

 

I will not do the whole article at but I will just reinforce what is in post #4

 

Article indented

 

When all the dust settles, the post-pandemic era should provide a boost to downtown areas, in part due to newly unemployed but highly skilled restaurant and retail workers opening new businesses in downtowns where rent prices will trend downward.

 

I don't think that rent will trend more downward in downtown areas and I expect suburban rental rates will continue to be lower -- maybe in some very depressed downtowns it might.  For sure not ours.

 

The pandemic has left millions of highly skilled workers from the retail and food and beverage industries unemployed and eager to work. Many of these people are highly motivated to start their own businesses, creating an unparalleled pool of talent and potential entrepreneurial interest.

 

These workers are not magic - retail and food and beverage industries are depressed and risky right now, it would be highly risky to start something new, and probably difficult to raise capital even as experienced operators are needing to shut down because they are unable to raise funding.

 

that fear is gone for many people, who realize they no longer want to rely on an employer for the rest of their careers,

 

These very people who are concerned about relying on their employer are probably not in the best situation to start up something new.  Typically, if possible, people try to overlap their entrepreneurial endeavor with employment that pays that bills.  And if not, they have to be able to raise capital for something a high risk sector.

 

Play areas are roped off, water fountains covered, and stores are limiting the number of shoppers due to social distancing. Add in the inconvenience factor, and it’s clear why so many malls are facing a reckoning in the coming years.

 

This is not going to be different for downtown areas.

 

As malls close and online shopping grows, existing mall retailers will seek new locations near their former mall stores. In many instances, these venues include smaller downtown cores, which traditionally offer lower rents and, now, the safety of an open-air shopping experience.

 

This situation doesn't map very well to our city, maybe others.

[renamerusk]

I read it and came away with a feeling of optimism. 

 

I have heard some people now saying that they will put more into a rainy day fund. In the new order, as a condition of receiving capital funding, I think lenders will require that a percentage of revenue be set aside to establish a rainy day fund.  As a lender, it might not be automatic to increase the line of credit if the rainy day fund did not meet a hard set reserve (90 days to cover all expenses).

 

I also believe, that as a Social Democrat myself, the country has learned a hard lesson about the pitfalls of capitalism.  The U.S. will is creeping more towards a future where guaranteed income payments and guaranteed universal healthcare is a step closer. These two steps will make it much easier to be start a business.

 

The U.S. Economy was already under going transition and the pandemic is ushering in a new order. 

 

This is an anecdote but one of my long time friend is a financial investment broker and is a Conservative through and through who is now telling me how much he is enjoying working from home and not having to commute to his office for which he must pay a "user" fee monthly for his desk.  I have the impression that he is not going back to working in an office M-F.  In the same conversation he predicted that the 5 floors leased by Kemper within his 15-story building are not likely to be filled once the pandemic has ended.  These vacancies will drive rents downward. Landlords will be want to fill their vacancies with rates that are going to be lower.  Logically, I can at least see this point being made by this article.

 

Many, but certainly not all employees, who have been furloughed or lost their jobs permanently do have the skills to start their own small firm or business.  I think many may have already wanted to make the transition but the fear of doing so was too overwhelming.  At the time that the pandemic is over, these newly freed employees can look to a downtown, particularly Downtown Fort Worth which is already attractive. I follow the logic of DTFW wanting to be supportive of new micro businesses. I can also see the logic of this point.

 

I think it is logical to think that the way we did things before the pandemic will not return and that is the impression that I took after reading the article.  I can understand that we are all trying to figure out what will happen next, but I believe what can be said about this article is that it provides some direction; and that is something solely needed at the moment.

[Austin55]

Sundance had been trending towards smaller and more local shops and boutiques anyway. Not sure if new management has the same visions but it will be interesting to watch.

[Jeriat]

Sundance had been trending towards smaller and more local shops and boutiques anyway. Not sure if new management has the same visions but it will be interesting to watch.

 

Speaking of that, maybe Sundance could market itself as a "Small Town Main Street" area (might as well since that's what it feels like, anyway), attracting the small business and boutiques. And on the opposite end, a potential district for the Convention Center/FWCS area could have your typical big chains. 

I know how many feel about chains in this forum, but I feel like it would make more sense. 

[roverone]

I'm certain there are many moving parts to what type of businesses lease in what areas, and what kinds of businesses landlords try to attract.  I'm pretty sure that from a landlord perspective, there would inherently be the desire to have the lower risk of a proven chain moving in, preferably something high-end if percentage rent is involved. Being proven means you can be more assured they are operationally sound, and being a chain in most cases means there is a bigger corporation behind them to sign the lease.

 

For sure you can balance your risk and have a mix of smaller things and chains if you think it can set the right mood.

 

It will be interesting to see what happens now.  In the past Sundance Square was kind of a stand alone property.  Now it is is HSM, and they have more properties and more existing relationships with chain tenants.  If we go to their history, where did they head when they had Highland Park Village?

 

The pressure the opposite way is that you have things like Clearfork operated by Simon, and we know Simon can siphon off the high-end chains causing a scarcity of those kinds of tenants.  There might not be any choice but to try for more local businesses downtown.

 

It seems that areas like Magnolia and now even more South Main have cost structures that are more compatible with the rents and risks of local businesses.

 

We can't forget that landlords are in the business of making money from their properties, and they are going to try to chart a course to that revenue stream.  I expect they have an interest in that being a stable revenue stream too -- things going out of business is expensive to deal with and also is a bad look.

[renamerusk]

......For sure you can balance your risk and have a mix of smaller things and chains if you think it can set the right mood.....The pressure the opposite way is that you have things like Clearfork operated by Simon, and we know Simon can siphon off the high-end chains causing a scarcity of those kinds of tenants.  There might not be any choice but to try for more local businesses downtown.

 

It seems that areas like Magnolia and now even more South Main have cost structures that are more compatible with the rents and risks of local businesses......

This is the concept that I have been suggesting which is a mixture consisting primarily of retailing, service oriented tourist centered businesses in Downtown Fort Worth with the charm already being in place.

 

Clearfork landing N-M was a strategic coup; and it will very likely land in future Nordstroms which will firmly cement CF as a destination for high end retail.   In addition as pointed out, South Main/Magnolia and FWSY are not standing by idly.  Downtown Fort Worth (SS) has to land a Bloomingdale Micro which would generate the kind of interest to support the smaller shops in Downtown. And of course, Downtown has the unique advantage of the Convention Center and the hotels that are opening to take advantage of tourism and convention business.  When the Mayor made the illogical statement that Fort Worth's CC expansion plans is on hold indefinitely, I questioned the soundness of this decision.

 

The pandemic is reshaping the Downtown Office Market here and in many cities.  Employers are rethinking what is the proper mix of staffing workers in offices and staffing workers from their homes.  There is ample uncertainty going forward.  However, what seems to be reemerging is consumerism out pacing the demand for office space.  Consumerism in the demand for dining out and entertainment; and the results of surveys that show that consumers will be making more day trips and travel by automobile and trains.  This survey looks promising for Fort Worth, as it is clearly a city easily accessible by car and train.

 

So, yes I am optimistic about the prospects of New Life for Downtown; it sounds like a good plan for the future.

[Urbndwlr]

The availability of great talent at reasonable costs is likely bigger advantage for any start-ups than minor rent discounts.   Rent is actually a relatively small % of most companies' cost.  Payroll typically dwarfs rent. 

 

South Main and Magnolia are definitely no longer places where people can expect to find low rent.  Those days are behind us.  Those buildings have been selling for premium prices for over 10 years and any building improvements in the last 10 years have had to contend with high construction prices, so I suspect few building owners will be able to offer relatively low rent.

 

Note: Fort Worth's "expensive" rent is still way lower than many other cities including, say, Austin and Dallas, but within Fort Worth, the Near Southside is sought-after real estate and they can (and probably have to) command pretty strong rents.

[Doohickie]

Note that I think the downtown the article is talking about is the downtown of smaller cities.  Major cities have, in many cases, already revitalized their downtowns.

[elpingüino]

Luke Ranker has a very good, very comprehensive article about downtown Fort Worth trying to bounce back from COVID. https://www.star-tel...e244630747.html

Since downtown buildings aren't large enough to do much business at reduced capacity, they're planning to move the experience outside with a "bolder, European" use of spacce. Unused parking and maybe whole streets would be converted for outdoor dining and shopping. The City has started granting businesses parklet permits for the curbside parking area in front of their property.

[rriojas71]

Luke Ranker has a very good, very comprehensive article about downtown Fort Worth trying to bounce back from COVID. https://www.star-tel...e244630747.html

Since downtown buildings aren't large enough to do much business at reduced capacity, they're planning to move the experience outside with a "bolder, European" use of spacce. Unused parking and maybe whole streets would be converted for outdoor dining and shopping. The City has started granting businesses parklet permits for the curbside parking area in front of their property.

I wish they would turn 3rd St. from Houston to Commerce and Main St from 2nd to 3rd into pedestrian only.  Business could use the entire sidewalk for larger covered patio seating and turn Main and 3rd Street into the walkways with seating and green space.  3rd street on busy evenings is somewhat perilous for pedestrians.

[John T Roberts]

I don't think the city would close 3rd Street off.  It connects directly with E. 4th, E. 1st, and Randol Mill Rd, which are arterial connections to the east side.  Maybe converting all of Main Street to pedestrian only would be a better idea.

[rriojas71]

I don't think the city would close 3rd Street off.  It connects directly with E. 4th, E. 1st, and Randol Mill Rd, which are arterial connections to the east side.  Maybe converting all of Main Street to pedestrian only would be a better idea.

Are you talking about Main between the Courthouse and the Convention Center?

[John T Roberts]

Yes, I am.  I think it would be great if that entire section of street was pedestrian only.  I don't know how deliveries would work, but it would be nice.

[roverone]

John hit the key point:  you can't just close off vehicle access to Main Street without a healthy amount of concessions made on the "numbered" streets -- there is a lot of traffic flowing East to West piercing Main Street -- waiting for that traffic at pedestrian crosswalks chops up the blocks quite a bit, but more importantly all that traffic means zero places to stop on the busy E-W streets for loading and unloading to get things to Main Street entrances.  Somehow there would have to be reserved places to pull out of traffic on the numbered streets as loading zones, and I'm not exactly sure how you convince property owners that they have to give up the space in front of their place on the numbered streets in support of a no-vehicle Main Street.  Maybe there are enough spots that are "the side" of something.

 

I've always felt like our downtown has too much thru traffic on some streets.  It is fine to deal with the ingress and egress and delivery for downtown buildings, but it is weird to me that there are probably people who drive through the middle of downtown every day on the way to and from work even though they do not work downtown.

[John T Roberts]

The 16th Street Mall in Denver is pedestrian only, with the exception of a shuttle bus route along the street.  All of the streets perpendicular to the mall cross it.  There is also light rail service to the mall on a couple of cross streets.

[johnfwd]

The article by the American Society of Landscape Architects in Post#1 is well written and upbeat about the economic future of downtowns in America.  As a replacement for the dying malls, all the benefits of a downtown are highlighted.  And, in the context of post-pandemic, the article paints a bright picture of a resurgence of downtown shopping by new entrepreneurs.

 

But the author appears to assume that just because malls are losing shoppers they will come back to downtowns.  Yes, downtowns are great places to shop, or they were in the 1950s, as the author points out. The author seems to ignore the fact that what happened to the big departments stores like Leonard Brothers, Monnigs, Stripling, Woolworth, etc., in DT Fort Worth is that shoppers left them because suburban malls and shopping centers emerged to service the all-mighty automobile.

 

I agree that making a Main Street walkable is a good idea.  Actually, the best futuristic idea would be to completely wall off a downtown from automobile traffic.  Make the downtown environmentally friendly for the retail and cultural activities the author brags about.  I propose a sort of dome over downtown to protect against the hot sun, rain, etc.   And institute people movers like modernistic monorails, or the classic street cars.  

 

I remember reading about the "city of the future" prophesied back in the 1920s or 30s.  They even contemplated "moving sidewalks" (like horizontal escalators) downtown.  And helicopters going from roof to roof among the skyscrapers.  Regrettably, most American downtowns today are stuck with buses and automobiles.

[John T Roberts]

With the exception of the dome, your idea almost sounds like the Gruen Plan from the 1950s.

[johnfwd]

Yes.  Though the Gruen plan has been discussed at length in the Forum previously, your reference to it here in the context of a "post-pandemic revitalization" (my quotations) is certainly relevant.

 

What impressed me was the concept of underground conveyance of freight carriers and, of course, the above-ground heliports.

 

I think tunnels might be beneficial in a downtown free of motor vehicles.  When I was living in Oklahoma City, I enjoyed walking through their tunnels downtown.  The tunnels provide the transit means for both pedestrians and people-moving pods and can be places for retail establishments and cultural events underground.

 

A dome over downtown is impractical because of very tall buildings.  But I envision in the very far future some technological means to moderate climate for downtowns.  That would surely benefit Fort Worth with its 100-plus heat in summer.

[John T Roberts]

Tunnels take the pedestrian traffic off of the streets.  Dallas is working on closing them down.  We used to have quite a few, but it seem as if they are either closed or not used as much now. 

[roverone]

I completely agree that pedestrian tunnels are most likely a bad idea because they take the "life" off of the street level and make the streets look like a ghost town.

 

But utility tunnels for deliveries might be a good idea, if they could ever be coordinated -- although not every building has a basement.

 

Edit:  forgot to say, like the Disney park model of keeping what it takes to make things work out of view -- although I'm sure that takes a certain amount of density to be practical

[John T Roberts]

Roverone, you are correct in that not every building has a basement.  Over the years, I have been in quite a few lower levels of our downtown buildings, and I have also been on quite a few rooftops.