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Nitixope

Member Since 17 Jan 2005
Offline Last Active Yesterday, 05:28 PM
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#151532 Berkadia Construction Pipeline Reports

Posted by Nitixope on Yesterday, 03:06 PM

I saw this posted this on LinkedIn, seemed interesting.  This guy has some very good insight and posts if you want to check it out: https://www.linkedin...t-activity/all/

 

"Multifamily building permits have plunged at least 35% from the peak in more than half of the nation's largest 50 metro areas, as developers continue to run against a thick wall of headwinds -- high cost of debt, lesser equity and debt availability, falling lease-up rents, and fairly sticky construction costs.

 
But a handful of markets show surprisingly smaller drops. Most notably are the two markets currently experiencing (arguably) the most intense lease-up pains: Phoenix (-10% from peak) and Austin (-22% from peak). The pair ranked second and third nationally for most multifamily units permitted in the 12-month period ending in February 2024, with around 20k units permitted in each.
 
However, I suspect a large portion of those 20k units won't break ground any time soon-- and more likely reflect developers who've paid enough in pre-construction hard costs at this point to pull the permit in hopes of being "shovel ready" for potential capital partners once conditions improve.
 
As a reminder: All signs continue to point to significantly less apartment supply across the U.S. by late 2025 and through at least 2026-27.
 
Let's look at other highlights:
 
Down 60%+ ... Philadelphia, Palm Beach County, Seattle, Baltimore... Philly and Seattle are both coming off multi-decade highs in supply, with much concentrated in/around urban cores.
 
Down 50-60% ... St. Louis, Oakland, Portland, Houston, San Antonio, San Francisco. No surprise to see the Bay Area here, even if construction never got as big here as elsewhere due to COVID challenges, but demand never rebounded quite as much as hoped either. Houston is an interesting one because construction here never even topped the national average (as a % of existing market) and now it's down even more than the national average. Houston could be a sleeper outperformance candidate.
 
Down 35-50% ... This group includes Atlanta, Minneapolis, Nashville, Washington DC, Denver, Orange County, Tampa, Boston, Orlando, Dallas, Chicago, Kansas City, Salt Lake City. No real surprises here. This is about what you'd expect to see in markets that have built quite a bit, yet have generally held up okay.
 
Down 20-35% ... This groups includes New York, Jacksonville, Broward County, Raleigh, Riverside, Austin, Indianapolis and Charlotte. New York leads the nation in total permits, but that just reflects its size. As a share of market (2m+ units), New York is building very little. Also, mildly surprising not to see bigger drops in the Carolinas and some Florida markets-- but that could reflect the same permitted-but-unlikely-to-start theory we shared on Austin and Phoenix.
 
Flat to new peak: This group includes San Diego, Greensboro and Columbus. Never huge numbers in any of these spots, so it's not especially worrisome. Columbus is one that actually makes some sense, as it's been an increasingly attractive market yet relatively little construction outside of its urban core in this cycle."
 
HlvB3A9.jpg
 
 
"The narrative today is that apartment construction is falling due to banks pulling back on construction lending. But ... it's not quite that simple. In fact, it's not even the top reason for construction delays right now.
 
The No. 1 reason for apartment delays so far in 2024? "Project is not economically feasible at this time." That's from NMHC's latest apartment construction survey released yesterday.
 
So what does that mean?
 
1) It means projects aren't penciling out. In other words, apartment developers cannot generate the returns needed to justify the project to their capital partners. (And no, this isn't just about "greedy developers" because contrary to the social media noise, developers do not self-fund projects and instead must convince investors and lenders to inject that capital, and that's just harder to do right now despite developers' best efforts.)
 
2) Higher rates obviously contribute to the problem. It's not that construction financing isn't available (at least for some developers). It's that terms and rates are far less favorable than they were a couple years ago. You're paying a higher interest rate (which you then need higher rent to cover unless you can cut a lot of costs elsewhere) AND you're getting a lower loan-to-value ratio, which means you need to raise even more equity to cover the gap. And a lot of the equity has shifted away from ground-up development into chasing potential lease-up distress.
 
3) Construction costs remain fairly sticky. Even as some materials get cheaper, others do not. Labor is getting easier to find (as the chart shows), but labor costs haven't meaningfully dropped. Plus property insurance and taxes are much higher than they were a couple years ago. Rising expenses add to projects not penciling out.
 
4) Falling rents also contribute to projects not being economically feasible. High rent growth of 2021-22 helped green-light hundreds of thousands of new apartment units, and in turn, those projects are bringing so much supply to the market that rents are falling in high-supplied areas. But falling rents + rising costs = very challenging environment to build. Capital partners need to believe in the pro forma rent. And if that rent isn't high enough to offset the costs and rates, then the project can't move forward. And if even the rent is higher today, capital partners could worry about the "catching the falling knife" problem-- meaning they're not sure today's rent won't further decline, which would mean their project would miss targets.
 
5) Ironically, all these delays and the slowdown in starts helps buttress the pro-development argument that anyone who can break ground in 2024-25 amidst sluggish market conditions will be well positioned for growth in 2026-27 -- when new supply will certainly be dramatically less and (barring a recession or black swan event), demand should top supply and rents could be growing at a solid clip again."
 
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#151523 University Avenue rebuild through Trinity Park

Posted by Nitixope on Yesterday, 08:32 AM

 

 

Just in time for home TCU Football games to begin... is there a posted estimate as for time of completion? I coudn't find that

 

Looks like about a year. (which, in Fort Worth speak, means around 18 months)

 

DWkm7iE.png

 

Phase II is a bit further away,

 

xCzfVRJ.png

 

 

 

granted the current construction on University didn't actually begin until Feb 2023, but here we are 13months in for what was supposedly a one year project...

has anyone seen/heard updated estimated dates for completion of the current bit?

 

 

Ph 1: Project completion date is Summer 2024

https://www.fortwort...y-drive-phase-1

 

Ph. 2: Project completion date is Spring 2027

https://www.fortwort...ty-drive-phase2




#151512 20 acres east of downtown (by Topgolf) for sale

Posted by Nitixope on 26 March 2024 - 10:41 AM

Record FS-24-085: 
Final Short Plat
Record Status: Applied
 
 
Project Description:
Stonehawk 4th Street Replat
 
GENERAL INFORMATION
Total Acreage: 9.284
Primary Use: Multi-Family Residential

 

LOTS BREAKDOWN

Original Lots: 2

Lots Created: 2

 

1qF1bvj.png

 

OgDGsS6.png




#151488 Museum Place

Posted by Nitixope on 25 March 2024 - 08:06 AM

 

 

 

https://www.tdlr.tex.../TABS2023025408

Project Name: Duro Restaurant
 

 
If this refers to Duro Hospitality (maybe a new concept), I'm in. 
 
https://durohospitality.com/
 
I really like The Charles and Mr. Charles. Very different from the traditional Fort Worth steakhouse type vibe. 
This Duro restaurant is one of the Dallas Morning News' most exciting new restaurants opening in 2024.

The paper doesn't know many details, just that it's 3,500 sqft on the first floor and patio, that it will be a high-end concept Duro hasn't done before, and that it wont be Italian.

 

 

Still no (new) details on Duro.

 

"Here’s a look at two fancy new restaurants in Fort Worth’s Crescent towers. One is open"
BY BUD KENNEDY

 

 

We have a name (heard it here first)  for Duro's new Museum Place restaurant:

 

Record AD24-00073: 
Alcohol Distance Check
Record Status: Pending

https://aca-prod.acc...ShowInspection=

 

Permit Address
3230 CAMP BOWIE BLVD 
 
Project Description:
THE CHUMLEY HOUSE
 
Site Contact information
DURO FW BEVCO LLC
3230 CAMP BOWIE BLVD
FORT WORTH, TX, 76107
 
ALCOHOL DISTANCE APPEAL
Type of Establishment: Restaurant
Type of License/Permit:Mixed Beverage
 
jPA7OQ4.png
 

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#151470 Fort Worth Daily Digital

Posted by Nitixope on 22 March 2024 - 11:02 PM

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#151469 Average Cost of Construction

Posted by Nitixope on 22 March 2024 - 01:32 PM

Here's DPR's Q4-2023 Market Conditions Report:

 

The Beck Group recently released their latest Cost Report: 

https://www.beckgrou...tReport2024.pdf

 

A few interesting highlights:

 

LOOKING AHEAD
"Forecasts suggest an improvement in industry conditions as the Federal Reserve plans to ease interest rates in 2024,
assuming inflationary pressures continue to abate. It could pave the way for owners who invested in upfront design
work to approve delayed or shelved projects, possibly accelerating the pace of implementation.
 
Notably, for 2024, we carry an annual escalation of zero to two percent – below the three percent in 2023
and well below the eleven percent that occurred in 2021 and 2022. This conservative estimate reflects our cautious
approach considering the recent economic challenges. It aims to provide stability in an ever-evolving landscape."
 
7WHVlxW.png
 
 
Also, Here's DPR's Q4-2023 Market Conditions Report:



#151461 Southside developments

Posted by Nitixope on 22 March 2024 - 08:34 AM

 

 

So is this Vickery at Near Southside or another new project?
https://www.instagra...zRlODBiNWFlZA==
KL1TiZs.png

 
Where IS this, exactly?

According to their website, this is on 500 College. Caddy-corner to the Phoenix Apartments. Currently an empty field, definitely a win for infill in the area.

 

 

New Building Permit Filed:

 
Record PB24-04389: 
Commercial New Building Permit
Record Status: Incomplete Submittal
 
 
Project Description:
College Ave Mixed Use
4 Story mixed use building with commercial space on ground floor and residential on upper floors
 
Permit Address
500 COLLEGE AVE
 
Job Value($): $10,000,000
Housing Units: 39

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#151458 Texas Weslyan bringing back football

Posted by Nitixope on 22 March 2024 - 08:06 AM

 
PROJECT
Project Name: Texas Wesleyan University Fieldhouse
Project Number: TABS2024014317
Facility Name: Fieldhouse
Location Address: 3001 Ave. D; Fort Worth, TX 76105
Location County: Tarrant
Start Date: 5/1/2024
Completion Date: 6/1/2025
Estimated Cost: $5,200,000
Type of Work: New Construction
Type of Funds: This project involves public funds, public land, or is a Federally funded roadway project.
Scope of Work:New construction of a fieldhouse facility to serve the University's football, track & field, and soccer teams.
Square Footage: 9,545 ft 2



#151426 Will Rogers Coliseum and Memorial Center

Posted by Nitixope on 20 March 2024 - 08:03 AM

 

 

 

New Drainage Study filed (but not active yet) for:

 

WRMC - Sheep and Swine Barn
3401 W LANCASTER AVE, undefined undefined, Fort Worth TX 76107
Created by: DALPFWSite
 
Article previously published in FW Report:
‘Everything’s older in Fort Worth’: One of Fort Worth’s oldest builds to receive $89 million in improvements
September 19, 2022 4:45 pm

 

Record DS-23-0113: 

Drainage Study
Record Status: Pending
Construction Start Date: Jan 2024
 
Permit Address
3401 W LANCASTER AVE
(NE Corner of Harley Ave and Gendy St)
 
Record Details
Applicant:
Dunaway Associates
550 Bailey Avenue, Suite 400
Fort Worth, TX, 76107
Project Description: WRMC - Sheep and Swine Barn
Renovation and Expansion of Sheep and Swine Barns

 

 

https://www.tdlr.tex.../TABS2023026321

 

PROJECT
Project Name: Sheep and Swine Barns Additions and Renovations
Project Number: TABS2023026321
Facility Name: Will Rogers Memorial Center
Location Address: 3417 & 3425 Burnett Tandy Drive
Fort Worth, TX 76107
Location County: Tarrant
Start Date: 2/1/2024
Completion Date: 12/31/2024
Estimated Cost: $35,000,000
Type of Work: New Construction
Type of Funds: This project involves public funds, public land, or is a Federally funded roadway project.
Scope of Work: Renovation of two existing barns and construction of new show arena between them.
Square Footage: 108,248 ft 2
Are the private funds provided by the tenant? No
 
OWNER
Owner Name:
City of Fort Worth
 
DESIGN FIRM
Design Firm Name: Hahnfeld Hoffer Stanford
Design Firm Address: 200 Bailey Avenue Suite 200
Fort Worth, Texas 76107

 

 

https://www.tdlr.tex.../TABS2024014109

 

PROJECT
Project Name: Finish Upgrades to 3 Libraries
Project Number: TABS2024014109
Facility Name: COFW WRMC Burnett & Cattle Barns Stall Replacement
Location Address: 3446 Burnett Tandy Drive
Fort Worth, TX 76107
Location County: Tarrant
Start Date: 7/1/2024
Completion Date: 12/26/2024
Estimated Cost: $5,300,000
Type of Work: Renovation/Alteration
Type of Funds: This project involves public funds, public land, or is a Federally funded roadway project.
Scope of Work: Replace asphalt floors with new concrete slab, replace animal stalls along with associated electrical.
Square Footage: 197,315 ft 2
 
DESIGN FIRM
Design Firm Name:
Elements of Architecture, Inc.
 
I forgot I took a photo of the construction the other day when I drove by:
h2lEozL.jpg



#151413 Evans Rosedale Area Revitalization

Posted by Nitixope on 19 March 2024 - 07:27 PM

Maintaining the grocery element to the project is essential. Adding to the discussion awhile back on what type of store would be appropriate, HEB has a new brand called Joe V's. It's 'low cost' HEB store and half the size of a typical HEB. There are already two in DFW. The high-quality of HEB stores and products would be a benefit to the people living in the area historically neglected - while being priced appropriately. 
 
 https://www.bizjourn...hop-dallas.html


Heres another article about JoeVs

H-E-B to break ground on second North Texas location of Joe Vs Smart Shop

https://www.star-tel...l#storylink=cpy


#151404 Northside Developments (Non-Stockyards / Non-TRV Projects)

Posted by Nitixope on 19 March 2024 - 11:01 AM

 

 

Here's yet another Northside hotel in the works at 2810 Clinton Ave. Noticed a hotel when browsing FAA records: https://oeaaa.faa.go...615209326&row=0
 
At first I thought it was an error and just a slightly shifted Hampton, but checking TAD shows that the owner (Stockyards Lodging LLC) is connected to Icon Lodging, which has developed a few other hotels in Fort Worth. 
 

 

So we have pending the following Stockyards Area Hotels:

  • 307 W Exchange Hotel (Dr. Ashai's / Eaglewood Hospitality project)
  • Stockyards Boutique Hotel (2414 Clinton Ave)
  • 2810 Clinton Ave Hotel (Stockyards Lodging LLC)
  • The Hampton Inn (OGC) at the old Carnival Foods lot
  • Stockyards North Hotel (OGC) (29th and Commerce

 

The land at the NE corner of Main and 23rd is owned by a hotel developer too. I heard years ago they were exploring options but not sure what the status of that is now.

 

 

You're right.  Vimla Enterprises owns a ton of land over there at 23rd and Main.

https://www.corporat...c/37746134.aspx

 

I'm calculating a total of 2.4576 acres from TAD and I think the small lot east of here on 23rd is theirs too.

PB9ESEx.png

 

HLyUmyp.png

 

 

 

https://www.corporat...c/37746134.aspx

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#151398 The Time Has Come: Host Forcing a Forum Upgrade

Posted by Nitixope on 19 March 2024 - 09:09 AM

I noticed images not loading the last few days on my phone too. I figured it was on my side, needing to clear my mobile browser cookies or get rid of 80 tabs I have open.

Edit: I switched from mobile Chrome to Safari private browsing. I now can see images.

 

Thanks for confirming.  I will also try switching to Safari on my iphone.  The only reason I had been using Chrome was unified credentials and bookmarks from my desktop but will say this has been kind of annoying, especially the changes Imgur has made to their platform recently.  They have a history of driving away users but you get what you pay for and in my case, that's nothing so I can't complain too much.  


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#151392 Fort Worth Daily Digital

Posted by Nitixope on 18 March 2024 - 11:08 PM

From this evening:

afeiqfv.jpeg


#151390 Northside Developments (Non-Stockyards / Non-TRV Projects)

Posted by Nitixope on 18 March 2024 - 10:49 PM

Here's yet another Northside hotel in the works at 2810 Clinton Ave. Noticed a hotel when browsing FAA records: https://oeaaa.faa.go...615209326&row=0
 
At first I thought it was an error and just a slightly shifted Hampton, but checking TAD shows that the owner (Stockyards Lodging LLC) is connected to Icon Lodging, which has developed a few other hotels in Fort Worth. 
 

 

So we have pending the following Stockyards Area Hotels:

  • 307 W Exchange Hotel (Dr. Ashai's / Eaglewood Hospitality project)
  • Stockyards Boutique Hotel (2414 Clinton Ave)
  • 2810 Clinton Ave Hotel (Stockyards Lodging LLC)
  • The Hampton Inn (OGC) at the old Carnival Foods lot
  • Stockyards North Hotel (OGC) (29th and Commerce)

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#151380 Westside/Camp Bowie/Arlington Heights Development

Posted by Nitixope on 18 March 2024 - 02:46 PM

 

 

 

FINALLY!

Been asking for a Daiso closer to home for years.


Is it substantively different from any of the US dollar store chains?

 

 

Hoping they keep up with the store better than this.  The other thing I noticed the handful of times I've gone in Dollar Tree is (at least the one's I've been in) there's always a line 8 people deep and it moves super slow and no self-checkouts.  I've often wondered if it has something to do with their POS system running slow or perhaps people not having payment ready in-hand, but I've been in an Aldi's before with a line 15 people deep and it took about 4-5 minutes for the cashier to clear the entire line.

 

w13fpcu85j871.jpg?auto=webp&s=03c0bcb246

 

Trust me, I've never seen a Daiso look anything like that.

They're in more "economically viable" locations... even Grapevine Mills has one

 

 

LOL

 

This is one of those places you go in without a list of items in-mind and buy a bunch of stuff that a ) you didn't know even exists and b ) you don't necessarily need but want to have it just because it's interesting.

 

Some examples:

https://maps.app.goo...RAvVMkGjuwGcKA9