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The quarantine thread


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#101 JBB

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 01:37 PM

Get used to it. I would imagine any sporting event played the rest of this year will be in empty facilities.

#102 renamerusk

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 01:50 PM

Among the many questions that I have is without the fans paying the bill, how can the games be played or the facilities have the concession sales that are the bottom line of profitability?


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#103 JBB

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 03:10 PM

I don't know that anyone has any good answer for that.  The short answer is that it might not be profitable, but that professional sports organizations are well-positioned enough to operate at a loss in the name of maintaining continuity until the crisis subsides.  There's still money to be made from televising the games and I think it goes without saying that expenses will be reduced.  Players or participants are likely going to agree to a reduction in pay for an abbreviated season (MLB already has this in place) and stadiums and arenas will not require the normal amount of staffing that they would if they were filled.  Again, if these leagues or sports fail to turn a profit for a year or even two, I doubt that any executives or owners are going to be living on the street any time soon.

 

The overall human logistics of resuming play will likely be the biggest obstacle to overcome.  I follow baseball as close as any other sport and several proposals for resuming play have come to light, the most prominent being some combination of playing games in quarantined environments at their training facilities and stadiums in Arizona and Florida.  On the surface, it sounds possible, but I read conservative estimates of it requiring upward of 2000 people to pull off including players and all of the necessary support staff.  Short of a vaccine or immunity that could be months away, all of those people would have to be quarantined and tested regularly.  That doesn't even take into account the fact that almost all of those people would have to be lodged somewhere that would require support staff.  It's a snowball effect of people with possible exposure at that point.  The logistics just don't make sense.  And every other sport will likely face similar obstacles.  I haven't heard details of the PGAs plan, but I'm having trouble seeing how they'll pull it off.

 

There's been some particularly grim reports about the state of college sports.  They've lost the biggest part of their winter and all of the spring season.  They are desperately looking for a way to at least simply postpone the fall football season.  Many schools rely on football to fund their entire athletic program and the loss of an entire season would be catastrophic financially.



#104 ramjet

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 04:23 PM

Baylor is reporting a $65 - $80 million budget cut as a result of the impacts of the pandemic.  Doesn't quite sound catastrophic in the story, but I'm sure it will hurt.

 

https://www.texastri...get-80-million/



#105 renamerusk

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 07:35 PM

The professional leagues stand a higher chance of attendance falling and not returning should the fans adapt to watching sports from their homes or similar gathering spaces post pandemic.  If the new normal experience is staying at home, avoiding traffic and weather, and not paying the ridiculous charges for concession, then the professional leagues might need to consider this risk.

 

If the leagues just suspend competition for one season, there might be enough pinned up demand to go to a stadium, but if the demand is met using empty stadiums, well bye bye sellouts.



#106 JBB

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Posted 16 April 2020 - 09:17 AM

Just an interesting not from this morning: sports business reporter Darrell Rovell mentioned that 75% of college football's revenue comes from ticket sales.  15% of the NFL's revenue is from ticket sales.  College football has almost nothing to gain from playing in empty stadiums.



#107 elpingüino

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Posted 17 April 2020 - 11:47 AM

Governor Abbott announces some loosened restrictions and a phased reopening. https://www.texastri...tt-coronavirus/

#108 ramjet

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Posted 17 April 2020 - 10:10 PM

I'm so averse to being political, but I can't imagine the challenge of being the Governor right now.  Without political leanings expressed, I offer my best thoughts to our local and state leaders.  God, please help them.



#109 roverone

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Posted 19 April 2020 - 09:48 AM

Here is a good relatively new site that shows just the fundamental critical statistic of RT by state.  It would be great if this could be at a county level, but the data might be too sparse at that level:

 

https://rt.live

 

You can see the improvement from the distancing, and it will be interesting to see how this changes as restrictions are eased.



#110 renamerusk

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Posted 19 April 2020 - 02:47 PM

Experts say it may be time for grocery stores to ban customers from coming inside.  The culprit: Careless Customers.

 

I mentioned earlier that Careless Customers (no mouth covering, no gloves) is risking grocery workers and people who must buy food and essential supplies.

 

I strongly favor prohibiting customers who do not take the minimum precautions from entering inside of grocery stores.  If they do not wish to abide by these restrictive steps, then they can have their groceries dropped out at their door for an appropriate fee.

 

"No shirt; no shoes, no service!"; add face masks and gloves.



#111 renamerusk

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Posted 19 April 2020 - 11:20 PM

Watch this!

 



#112 RD Milhollin

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Posted 20 April 2020 - 02:32 PM

And this nonsense is LEGAL?! Little old widows get tricked into sending their SS checks to this guy... I know, that's a stereotype but a lot of people throw their money at trash like this, getting what in return? Barnum was right! And this guy could have worked for Barnum!



#113 renamerusk

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Posted 20 April 2020 - 02:51 PM

And there is more to watch and to read

 

https://www.nbcnews....ttling-n1187076

 

https://spectrumloca...avirus-pandemic



#114 Dylan

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Posted 20 April 2020 - 06:51 PM

Every so often, Kenneth Copeland Ministries posts job openings for media positions that I'm looking for... but I want no part of that organization.


-Dylan


#115 Austin55

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Posted 20 April 2020 - 06:54 PM

Mayor Price is getting tested, staffer she worked with was positive.

#116 ramjet

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Posted 20 April 2020 - 07:35 PM

Watch this!

 

Wow.  He looks demon-possessed.  Look at his eyes.



#117 johnfwd

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Posted 21 April 2020 - 05:34 AM

Some brief details about Mayor Price in "self-isolation" in this FWBP article.

 

http://www.fortworth...ff8a21b225.html



#118 renamerusk

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Posted 21 April 2020 - 08:54 AM

Watch this. At the same moment, it is both wonderful and disturbing. 

 

 

Time Magazine Online - Story Behind Photos of Counter-Protesting Healthcare Workers | Time



#119 JBB

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Posted 23 April 2020 - 08:52 AM

One nice consequence of this whole ordeal has been how clear the sky has been in recent days.  I know it was aided by a cold front last night, but the blue sky behind the skyline when I was driving in from the east was really pretty this morning.



#120 John T Roberts

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Posted 23 April 2020 - 10:33 AM

I will agree.  The skies have been very blue during the day.  I also noticed that the stars are more easily visible at night right now.  I should try to stay out after dark to let my eyes adjust more one night to see how many more stars I can see now.



#121 johnfwd

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Posted 23 April 2020 - 01:03 PM

I take it the comments about blue skies and starring nights are suggestive of the fact that the virtual suspension of industrial activity and its concomitant emission of air pollution as a result of the pandemic-caused shutdowns have made the skies clearer for all to enjoy.



#122 JBB

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Posted 23 April 2020 - 01:17 PM

That and the reduction of cars on the road.  My typical 30 minute communte to and from works is down to about 20 minutes now.



#123 BlueMound

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Posted 23 April 2020 - 04:09 PM

COVID-19 Cases Nearly Quadruple Inside Fort Worth Federal Medical Prison
https://www.nbcdfw.c...prison/2356912/
Now, up to 172 infected

#124 JBB

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Posted 23 April 2020 - 04:52 PM

Speaks for itself:

http://www.fortworth...f24a5a38d0.html

#125 roverone

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Posted 24 April 2020 - 07:45 AM

I don't mean to imply that the mix of companies that are getting PPP forgivable loans is correct, but I think we should be nuanced in how we judge the specifics of each case.  Not every big company has the cash reserves we think they should, and the forgiveness of these loans is tied to capped salary amounts (and some other things related to operating a business).  Although it might feel insulting that big companies are getting big amounts, we need to consider how many employees they are helping and what the alternatives would be for those employees.

 

The idea of flowing this money through the businesses to employees rather than just directly to the employees is to keep that employed relationship in place.  Since it flows through banks, it is easy to see why businesses that have more active banking relationships were more likely to flow through loans under this program -- rather than start a new conversation, it was just another option during the weekly call they had with their bank anyway.

 

It seems like this new replenishment has some set-asides to help the money get to smaller businesses that have looser banking relationships, and I think that great.  I'm often perplexed by what we define as a "small business" being 500.

 

I'm just writing this to temper the outrage a little (not to say there are not going to be many cases where it is deserved) about big companies getting all of the PPP money.  The purpose of the money is to help employees, and bigger companies probably help more employees.  We should judge them not on their size, but rather on whether we realistically know whether they had the cash reserves, and would have been able / willing to use them to retain their employees in the absence of revenue, and took advantage of the program anyway, not judge them solely on their size.



#126 renamerusk

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Posted 24 April 2020 - 01:48 PM

.....The idea of flowing this money through the businesses to employees rather than just directly to the employees is to keep that employed relationship in place...I'm just writing this to temper the outrage a little (not to say there are not going to be many cases where it is deserved) about big companies getting all of the PPP money.  The purpose of the money is to help employees, and bigger companies probably help more employees.....

 

This was such a bolt of lightning to us all and has taken us some time to come up with the most effective strategy to see through this for 12-18 months.

 

Instead of a trickle down strategy that provides money to the employers and businesses, it is my opinion that a better way to have approached this is with a direct infusion into the payroll departments of these companies.  The direct infusion is what the airline unions achieved so as to bypass the executives and non related personnel activity so that the employees could hang on until the airlines were going again.  In the case of the airlines, it would seem that they are benefiting from very attractive fuel costs and now able to pare their rolling stock.

 

For instance, had the date of 1/31/20 been the starting point, companies would get a subsidy (80%) of wages to be distributed to each employee that was on their payroll effective 1/31/20.  A company would have the SSN, the addresses, the contact number of each of its employee if the employer was following rules and regulations.  Employees would pickup their wages from the company or the company would distribute the payment via USPS or Direct Deposit.  I think that others, such as students enrolled in colleges could also receive some assistance through the bursar's office. 

 

Too much of the money is going to prop up businesses instead of personnel.  With personnel having 80% of salary, I think the distribution of the money would flow more smoothly into the economy. 

 

I don't understand how institutions like DFW Airport or University of Texas are receiving hundreds of millions of dollars



#127 roverone

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Posted 24 April 2020 - 03:11 PM

I think at least the PPP program (and I know there are other programs that you might be talking about that I'm not very familiar with) is structured in the interests of keeping people employed when things can loosen up, it is not all about payroll, but mostly about payroll.  It lets companies keep people on the books as employed, and keeps their health insurance paid, and it keeps the business from defaulting on their lease or mortgage.

 

There are always people who will cheat things, and you try to catch them and write it better the next round if you can.

 

Sure, we need people to be able to meet their financial needs, but we also want to keep them connected to a job if we can.  That job is the business, and so some of the money does need to go to propping up the business, because that is in the long-term interest of the employee.  In a different arrangement, we could imagine employers releasing all of the employees (and this is kind of happening), and then there is no guarantee they would be rehired, one could imagine for efficiency's sake that hiring might tilt toward younger / cheaper employees if they are able.

 

These are very difficult circumstances that are absent easy solutions.  To reduce or eliminate revenue all of the sudden for a business is not unlike a person no longer having access to food.  We might think to ourselves, well, that person is very fat, they should be able to go a long while without food -- but neither bodies nor businesses are configured to deal with such a shock so easily.



#128 renamerusk

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Posted 24 April 2020 - 03:51 PM

I think it is more straight forward.  A there were before the crisis, businesses that were managed great and were managed poorly. Thus, you already had businesses shuttering in West 7th who, as the market was already determining, needed to go out of business.  You could imagine that there are insurance companies or used car dealers that operate shady and take advantage of vulnerable consumers.  Do you want to prop up businesses that have been documented or rated to be bad actors.  How many tatoo and nail salons do we prop up?

 

This not a bad reflection on Heim's BBQ, but expanding too rapidly had risks for quality and for overhead.  I have long been a critic of expanding simply as a vanity project.  IMO, your customer base will come to you and you can extend your hours and your delivery options before taking on the capital expenses of a second or third location.

 

As a way too control cheating, I would not prop up businesses because it is impossible to determine the accuracy of their books. 

 

On the other hand, It is very possible as a means to get money to workers by using the payroll infrastructure as the ideal vehicle.  When the consumer has the dollars in their pockets, the better managed businesses will be rewarded.



#129 johnfwd

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Posted 29 April 2020 - 06:06 AM

By now most of us are aware of Governor Greg Abbott's announcement of re-opening most all retail businesses, including restaurants, on Friday.  I have mixed thoughts about this.

 

Credit the governor for basing his decision on the judgment of public health experts (at least I believe him when he said it).  His "re-opening" is still being done cautiously and incrementally, which is probably a good idea.  For example, restaurants can have dine-in business so long as they are only 25% of their capacity.

 

But I'm concerned this easily-spread virus may take advantage of the reviving of mass gatherings, even if in the limited manner prescribed by Gov. Abbott.

 

I just wish the barber shops (and nail salons) can re-open soon.  I am in desperate need of a haircut!



#130 JBB

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Posted 29 April 2020 - 07:59 AM

I hit 7 weeks on Friday since my last hair cut and I rarely go longer than 3.  I'm almost getting desperate enough to try it at home.

 

It's interesting how many restaurants are declining to open dine-in service at 25%.  I suspected that it might be cost prohibitive for some and I think there's the worry that limited seating is going to encourage long waits and unnecessary gatherings of large groups.



#131 renamerusk

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Posted 29 April 2020 - 12:38 PM

We're already in that stage.  I rushed out and purchase one of the last and few clippers on Walmart's shelves.  Through two haircuts now, things aren't bad.  We saved $80 bucks by doing it ourselves.



#132 Fort Worthology

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Posted 29 April 2020 - 01:17 PM

Credit the governor for basing his decision on the judgment of public health experts (at least I believe him when he said it). 

 

I really worry that Texas will be unpleasantly surprised in a few weeks by this decision of Abbott's. I dearly hope I'm wrong.


--

Kara B.

 


#133 renamerusk

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Posted 29 April 2020 - 01:41 PM

 

Credit the governor for basing his decision on the judgment of public health experts (at least I believe him when he said it). 

 

I really worry that Texas will be unpleasantly surprised in a few weeks by this decision of Abbott's. I dearly hope I'm wrong.

 

 

  I actually think that individuals will make their own decisions and that Abbott's decision will be somewhat irrelevant.  Of course, there will be and always will be "corvid-idiots".  Compared to eternity, waiting until June (Summer) is not too long a time; and even though a potential vaccine or prophylactic is 12-15 months away; perhaps we will be surprised as a result of the steadfast work of researchers of coming with something sooner.  I will bide my time.
 



#134 Doohickie

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Posted 29 April 2020 - 06:28 PM

Among the many questions that I have is without the fans paying the bill, how can the games be played or the facilities have the concession sales that are the bottom line of profitability?

TV revenue.  If no one can go to the game everyone will be watching on TV.


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#135 Doohickie

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Posted 29 April 2020 - 06:30 PM

The professional leagues stand a higher chance of attendance falling and not returning should the fans adapt to watching sports from their homes or similar gathering spaces post pandemic.  If the new normal experience is staying at home, avoiding traffic and weather, and not paying the ridiculous charges for concession, then the professional leagues might need to consider this risk.

 

If the leagues just suspend competition for one season, there might be enough pinned up demand to go to a stadium, but if the demand is met using empty stadiums, well bye bye sellouts.

If any of that was true, the Cowboys couldn't charge a king's ransom for a single game ticket.  When fans are okay to go into the stadiums again, THAT will be pent up demand, even if all the games have been on TV.


My blog: Doohickie

#136 Doohickie

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Posted 29 April 2020 - 06:40 PM

 

Credit the governor for basing his decision on the judgment of public health experts (at least I believe him when he said it). 

 

I really worry that Texas will be unpleasantly surprised in a few weeks by this decision of Abbott's. I dearly hope I'm wrong.

 

I tend to agree with you, K., on both fronts:  I think there will be an increase in the spread, but I hope I'm wrong.

 

I've been following a model that predicts number of cases and death counts.  When the stay-at-home started, the predicted Texas death count was about 900.  As talk of reopening things swirled, the number swelled to 1200 and eventually 1600.  Now it's back in the 1400s.  Basically, though, that tells me that the governor is reopening the economy at a cost of 500 Texan lives if he'd have kept things locked down for another month.

 

Of course it's a statistical model so even when it was 900 predicted deaths predicted, 2000 was still within the realm of possibility.  With 1400 deaths predicted, the model says that can vary between about 750 and 4000.  It's an indicator, but isn't hard science.


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#137 renamerusk

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Posted 29 April 2020 - 11:05 PM

Why and how the Texas voters cannot or do not see through this guy?

 

https://fortworthbus...-virus-lockout/



#138 youngalum

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Posted 30 April 2020 - 11:04 AM

Why and how the Texas voters cannot or do not see through this guy?

 

https://fortworthbus...-virus-lockout/

Because he has a R by his name and that is just enough to keep him in office for many Texans



#139 renamerusk

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Posted 30 April 2020 - 11:15 AM

Paxton turns the deeds of Billie Sol Estes into bush league!

 

Billie Sol Estes - https://spartacus-ed...om/JFKestes.htm

 

 

 

(Personal note from the BSE "Bio-Crimo Story:  Mentioned in the story is Robertson County (Texas). This is the birthplace county of my maternal roots. It is in the Heart of Texas and is quintessentially Texas: Bluebonnets, angus+hereford cattle, mockingbirds, cotton, as hot as an oven in the summers, the Brazos River and inky dark nights filled with stars! :wub:



#140 johnfwd

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Posted 01 May 2020 - 05:22 AM

Today's the day restaurants in Texas re-open for business.  At 25% capacity.  Anyone care to wager there won't be a long line outside the Railhead Smokehouse or Red Lobster or Joe T. Garcia's or any number of other popular restaurants?  Or, maybe, the opposite will occur:  Not wanting to have to wait in line a lot of patrons just stay home?

 

I, for one, won't be going to a restaurant because, if I did, I don't know the best time to go to be one of the one-fourth crowd.  10:30  a.m. for lunch?  2:00 p.m. for dinner?

 

Then, if I do go and I finally get seated, will I be gulping down my food in a hurry to leave out of guilt that others are waiting to join the one-fourth crowd?  If I decide to stay awhile at my table after the meal to chat with my partner will the restaurant manager walk up and invite me to leave?  

 

About the table seating and social distancing?  I hope this doesn't mean entire families will have to sit at separate tables in order to be six feet apart.  [Worried mother to manager:  "Where's my baby?"  Manager:  "Sorry Mrs. Jones your baby's at the other end of the restaurant."]

 

Maybe all will go well with our dining experience if we're all wearing masks. :ninja:



#141 John T Roberts

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Posted 01 May 2020 - 07:57 AM

I won't be dining in at a restaurant anytime soon.  I'm still practicing extreme social distancing and it is easiser to just do curbside service or drive-thru. 



#142 JBB

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Posted 01 May 2020 - 08:31 AM

About the table seating and social distancing?  I hope this doesn't mean entire families will have to sit at separate tables in order to be six feet apart.  [Worried mother to manager:  "Where's my baby?"  Manager:  "Sorry Mrs. Jones your baby's at the other end of the restaurant."]


The social distancing rules have never applied within families and they won't apply to families or groups together at tables. The governor's order calls for a limit of 6 people per table. Do you really think that they are going to seat families across the restaurant or are you just aiming for a punchline?
 



#143 roverone

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Posted 01 May 2020 - 08:38 AM

It seems very unlikely for the circumstances of opening things up a little not to bring along higher risk: more people out in contact with others; some of them the least cautious.

 

It will be interesting to see what things are like after 2-3 weeks.

 

I'm not saying that there is any choice; it seems we are just going to have to take on more risk to re-activate the world.  But every day with controlled contact is another day closer to symptom-mitigating treatments, and another day that low-symptom infected people are maybe past their contagious stage.

 

Ultimately vaccination, but that is likely so far off as to not even be considered with how we plan on getting our current lives going again.



#144 JBB

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Posted 01 May 2020 - 09:03 AM

I have no desire to get back out any more than I have been any time soon.  I think there will be an initial rush of 2-3 weeks and then things will settle down considerably, even back below the level it was before this all started.  Getting the service industry partially back up and running is not the flip of the switch to get the economy back to normal that some people think it is.  There are still a lot of people that won't be going back to work any time soon.

 

There was a lot of speculation yesterday that a vaccine could be available after the first of the year.  Of course it will take months to mass produce and distribute, but that's a very tentative light at the end of the tunnel.



#145 elpingüino

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Posted 01 May 2020 - 10:14 AM

Today's the day restaurants in Texas re-open for business.  At 25% capacity.  Anyone care to wager there won't be a long line outside the Railhead Smokehouse or Red Lobster or Joe T. Garcia's or any number of other popular restaurants?  Or, maybe, the opposite will occur:  Not wanting to have to wait in line a lot of patrons just stay home?
 


One restaurant near me said they aren't reopening because the 25% limit applies to everyone inside, not just customers. After the employees are accounted for, there would only be room for 11 people eating at a time.

#146 John T Roberts

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Posted 01 May 2020 - 10:50 AM

Elpingüino, that is correct.  It has been ruled that the 25% limit applies to the whole facility, which means when you count your employees, the actual number of patrons is less than 25%. 



#147 Austin55

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Posted 01 May 2020 - 11:08 AM

Confusingly Abbott has changed his message that the staff do not count towards that.

 

 

Abbott’s order allows restaurants to seat up to 25% of their total listed occupancy. The cap does not apply to the staff, his office said.

https://www.dallasne...-actually-mean/



#148 renamerusk

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Posted 01 May 2020 - 11:36 AM

Somethings about the virus that are not being fully thought about are:

 

to determine whether people who may have developed antibodies are actually 100% immune from the next stage of being exposed

 

to determine if or when the virus began to mutate, so that this years immunity is temporary.  This is a virus.  Each year we are advised to receive vaccine for the current strain of the flu virus.  Covid19 will likely return as Covid20 in Fall/Winter of this year.

 

While officials are cautious and not raising expectations too high for a vaccine, it is encouraging that unofficially, research is working at unprecedented urgency (Europe) and U.S. drug labs to come up with a vaccine sooner than 12-15 months.  I think that testing may began as early as the summer.  If we can just continue to observe the levels of public awareness, I believe that we will reach a level comfort that can make life a bit more normal. 

 

The problem is there are politicians who are concerned about the November General Election and think that it is in their best interest for things to be humming along by then. 



#149 JBB

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Posted 01 May 2020 - 11:45 AM

I think that testing may began as early as the summer.


The first human trials in the US started in early March.

I think we'll have the same problem with COVID strains that we have with flu: vaccinating for the different strains will be a season or 2 behind. You hear about people that are vaccinated for flu getting it all the time. My daughter has had a flu shot every year she's been alive and come down with it twice in the last 3 years.

#150 Doohickie

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Posted 01 May 2020 - 10:06 PM

Ultimately vaccination, but that is likely so far off as to not even be considered with how we plan on getting our current lives going again.

Don't count on vaccination.  South Korea is beating the virus with testing and contact tracing.  They just had the first day with no new cases in the entire country since this whole thing started.

 

That's the thing.... I think we're going to have to learn to live with this in the medium term, possibly the long term.

 

So as much as I don't want to go eating out just yet, I am hopeful that restaurateurs will find what works and what doesn't, with a minimal amount of what doesn't.

 

I'm not fan of Tim Love, but I read the Woodshed opened their patio, with daily temperature measurements of every employee, 100% temperature measurements of guests, all staff wearing masks and all guests needing to provide their contact info in a guest register for potential contact tracing should it become needed.  That sounds pretty reasonable to me.


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