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Fort Worth Regional Population Comparison


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#1 roverone

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Posted 06 February 2022 - 08:11 PM

We are often curious about how are city relates to other cities.  Of course, the reality is that every city is unique, but that doesn't mean that we can't look into data to help us calibrate how we think about things.

 

One thing that has come up often lately is how our positioning in the region might influence how we look from the outside.  I'm sure population alone is not the best indicator, and we should dig deeper as time goes on.  But since we are all inclined to look toward cities of similar size, I wanted to look into how that regional influence actually affects this.

 

Some caveats up front:  The tool I'm using (Mathematica) has not updated their population data source from the 2015 estimated data, and so this is stale.  I will re-run this when the 2020 data becomes available.  The other thing is that I did not have the patience to filter out non US cities -- cities are being treated without state or national borders -- I'm sure the influence is not nothing with cities being in proximity across borders, but I'm sure it is not the same.

 

What I have done is to look at the top 50 US cities by population, and then extended out from the borders of those cities to make note of cities that are nearby.  I arbitrarily chose 20 miles as that distance.  It is important to note that this is not center-to-center distance, but border to border distance.  That is particularly important for a land-expansive Fort Worth.  Lastly, I'm making no effort to deal with unincorporated populations, just the cities.

 

The intention it to try to understand what impact being close to other cities might have on our city compared to if we were more "stand alone"

 

Here are the (2015) populations of the top 50 cities:

 

zdb57F.png

 

Here are the counts of cities who are within 20 miles of these cities.  Obviously NY does things a little differently, but the list has many familiar places:

 

N4h8Mf.png

 

To give you an idea of the range of cities around our city, here is an unordered list -- they may seem to go further than you would expect, but I believe that it is all about the extents of the two city limits:

 

uoMGOC.png

 

 

Having that information we can look at regional populations around cities:

 

5Blof9.png

 

But I now we get into more interesting data.

 

Here is the portion of the region that lives in the city:

NoiGke.png

 

Here are the number of cities that are larger within the region.  For both El Paso and San Diego, that larger city is in Mexico.  As you can see, it is rare for a top 50 city to be near another large city:

 

DSfOLY.png

 

This one is a little obscure, and it shows the relative number of people who live in a larger city compared to the target city.

 

To give an example, for each person living in Fort Worth, 1.56 people chose to live in the larger city of Dallas.

 

ANBoA7.png

 

 

 

I don't know if there are any conclusions to be made, but it does look like we find ourselves in a relatively unusual context compared to other cites.

 

Despite being 55% our size, maybe we can look at Mesa AZ as being comparable in some ways.  They have far fewer cities around and a more dominant large city, but their regionality has some similarity.

 

In the future I'm going to look into extending this with economic information.  I'd also like to look at commercial concentration and schools.  But population is a start.



#2 Doohickie

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Posted 06 February 2022 - 11:27 PM

Some good food for thought.

 

Fort Worth is indeed relatively unique in its situation.  In many ways it should be considered its own city but in others it is clearly in the orbit of Dallas.  If Fort Worth was a planet it might be Pluto.... is it a city or a suburb?  a planet or a satellite?


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#3 rriojas71

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Posted 07 February 2022 - 02:14 PM

I was recently in Tulsa and after driving around and exploring it feels like FW in a lot of ways. If you compare the cities based on population density they are almost identical. The same can be said about Louisville, KY. Food for thought.

#4 cjyoung

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Posted 07 February 2022 - 03:20 PM

So, why didn't you use the 2020 data? :swg:



#5 roverone

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Posted 07 February 2022 - 04:50 PM

I would love to have used 2020 data, but the Wolfram CityData source has not been updated yet, for some reason.  No way I'm going to try to ingest and use new data myself.  I'm sure they will catch up soon, and it will be easy to re-run the notebook.

 

It will be interesting to see for sure, but I don't know that it will change the underlying uniqueness of our city being embedded the way it is in our region.



#6 johnfwd

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Posted 08 February 2022 - 02:34 PM

Are you posting this charted data in connection with a study you're doing?  Maybe with a statistical analysis?  An eyeball observation of the first three charts above, based on the comparative data, suggests roughly positive correlation among city population, cities within 20 miles, and regional populations around cities.  It would be interesting to see if there is a causal relationship here.



#7 roverone

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Posted 08 February 2022 - 07:58 PM

There is not as much correlation as you might think.

 

Here is the relationship between the core city population and the number of cities within that 20 miles between boundaries criteria.

7KbgGJ.png

The core city to regional population looks pretty similar.  There is a different kind of visualization that I'm working on for that, but don't quite have it worked out yet.



#8 Dylan

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Posted 09 February 2022 - 01:21 AM

There is another way to compare Fort Worth with other metro areas.

 

Dallas and Fort Worth share a metro area, but the Dallas-Fort Worth area is also split into metro divisions. The census releases population totals for metro areas and metro divisions.

 

The Census website sucks and I can't find the info I want, so I had to search other sites for metro division info. I found one listing 2019 estimates.

 

The Dallas-Fort Worth area had a population of 7.57 million people. The Dallas metro division had 4.94 million people. The Fort Worth metro division had 2.48 million people.

 

In 2019, if Dallas and Fort Worth were separate metro areas, Dallas would rank 10th largest and Fort Worth would rank 26th largest. Together, they rank 4th largest.

 

 

 

EDIT to add: This is how the 2019 standings would look if Fort Worth were a standalone metro area:

 

20-St. Louis

21-Baltimore

22-Charlotte

23-Orlando

24-San Antonio

25-Portland

26-Fort Worth

27-Sacramento

28-Pittsburgh

29-Las Vegas

30-Austin


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#9 roverone

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Posted 09 February 2022 - 07:38 PM

Updated with 2020 Data

 

I put in a ticket with Wolfram and after some back-and-forth they decided there was an "issue" with getting the newest population data, but there was a tricky (and much slower) way to pull the newer data..

 

It is nice to have the newest data, but I don't think it changes the underlying status of how we are in a rare situation with our regional placement.

 

I also added values.

 

This is an oversimplification, but we are in effect 15.4 percent of the 7th largest city (also if we were to extend the region to also include the non-overlapping 20 mile region around the other side of Dallas, this percentage would be less).  And when you consider us as a neighborhood competing for businesses locating here in the region, there is also the reality that only part of our city's "neighborhood" is attractive to businesses even in the best of circumstances if we were a stand-alone city.

 

It would be nice to extend this comparison to be about some dimensions beyond simple population.  I believe coming to an understanding of where we really stand will help us develop strategies to grow business as well as we are growing housing, or at least understand why it is so difficult.

 

Population of the 50 top cities:

 

GSaXfb.png

 

Count of nearby cities whose boundaries are within 20 miles:

 

1nnBhY.png

 

Regional population of the city and surrounding cities (does not include unincorporated populations):

 

YIQrRr.png

 

Portion of the region that live within the city:

 

cuYNe4.png

 

Number of cities larger in the region -- as mentioned about, this all includes International cities, and so El Paso and San Diego's larger cities are in Mexico:

 

GrEyUf.png

 

The relative number of people who live in a larger city compared to this city -- e.g. for every person who lives in Fort Worth, about 1.42 people live in the larger Dallas.

 

KVQcJE.png






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