333 replies to this topic

[Stadtplan]

California's "exodus" is more motivated by housing costs than it is by taxes.

 

Recently passed updates to policies that govern the building of new housing is very likely to FINALLY help bend the pricing curve in California...
 

 

[george84]

Surprised about Austin!

[ramjet]

Surprised about Austin!

Pure speculation on my part, but the City of Austin has become so expensive to live in, I would bet its growth has slowed.  Also speculation, but It will probably continue to grow aggressively in the areas surrounding the city as they are a bit more affordable.

[steave]

I wonder if smaller household sizes also contribute to population loss in California cities. That would explain how demand can keep home prices high with fewer people. Higher income demographics would have fewer children.

[Doohickie]

I wonder if smaller household sizes also contribute to population loss in California cities. That would explain how demand can keep home prices high with fewer people. Higher income demographics would have fewer children.

Oh, even with the decrease in population there's still a housing shortage, guaranteed.

[rriojas71]

California's "exodus" is more motivated by housing costs than it is by taxes.

 

Recently passed updates to policies that govern the building of new housing is very likely to FINALLY help bend the pricing curve in California...
 

I totally agree with you on this point.  I lived in the bay area for 16 years and it was 1 of the main reasons why I left

[johnfwd]

Being a Fort Worth native, I'm biased.  But I can see Fort Worth surpassing these other cities in population because our city is--overall--a good place to reside, work, and enjoy cultural and recreational activities.  Surprisingly, our traffic system is not overwhelmed like it is in Dallas.  The city has  shown far-sightedness in encouraging the expansion of higher education institutions--notably A&M, UNT, TCU, and Tarleton State.  We have a walkable downtown with attractive tourist sites such as the Water Gardens and Sundance Square Plaza.  We have a city where museums and rodeos compete for tourist dollars. Dickie's Arena is our newest venue for sports activities.  And there's plenty of available land for economic and residential development on all sides of FW.  We have a rosy future ahead of us here.

[Doohickie]

Being a Fort Worth native, I'm biased.  But I can see Fort Worth surpassing these other cities in population because our city is--overall--a good place to reside, work, and enjoy cultural and recreational activities.  Surprisingly, our traffic system is not overwhelmed like it is in Dallas.  The city has  shown far-sightedness in encouraging the expansion of higher education institutions--notably A&M, UNT, TCU, and Tarleton State.  We have a walkable downtown with attractive tourist sites such as the Water Gardens and Sundance Square Plaza.  We have a city where museums and rodeos compete for tourist dollars. Dickie's Arena is our newest venue for sports activities.  And there's plenty of available land for economic and residential development on all sides of FW.  We have a rosy future ahead of us here.

I would say that downtown Ft Worth is pretty accessible in its scale.  Also, in other cities I've lived, downtown was more of an island surrounded by ghetto.  Downtown Fort Worth flows into the Near Southside, the Cultural District, and to a lesser extent the Stockyards pretty seamlessly.  (And hopefully development north of downtown spurred by TRV will enhance that.)

[Austin55]

Census released 2022 estimates today. The big takeaway: Fort Worth is #1 for numeric growth. (Has this ever happened before?) 

 

Fort Worth is still in 13th place, but seems on pace to overtake San Jose in just a few months, mostly because San Jose is shrinking pretty fast. 

Fort Worth should hit one million in 2025, and if current pace holds will overtake both Austin and Jacksonville in the rankings, around 2026, which will would make Fort Worth the 10th largest city in the country. 

https://www.census.g...-estimates.html

[John T Roberts]

I still can't believe the city has grown so much.

[johnfwd]

Not only is Fort Worth growing, but the "suburban" communities are, as well.  Benbrook, which is south of where I live, is a good example.  This community is experiencing residential and economic development.  The problem with Fort Worth is that its city limits is interspersed with some of these communities--Benbrook, Cityview, Haltom City are examples.  What is the population of the "Fort Worth Metropolitan area?"

[elpingüino]

What is the population of the "Fort Worth Metropolitan area?"

This article says the whole Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area grew by 170,000 in 2022 and is now 7.9 million. Haven't yet seen any figures that show just the Fort Worth side of the Metroplex on its own.

https://spectrumloca...-area--houston-

[FunkyTownTay]

There are probably a hundred different views on how to define the "Fort Worth metro area," but the 2022 estimate for Tarrant county is 2,154,595. 15th largest county by population in the US.

 

https://en.wikipedia...e_United_States

[ramjet]

From 5/23/23 Texas Monthly:

 

https://www.texasmon...-census-update/

[rriojas71]

From 5/23/23 Texas Monthly:

 

https://www.texasmon...-census-update/

Great article.  I feel that FW is on the verge of stuff happening, but to what extent I can't predict.  The shenanigans going on in DC aren't doing us any favors.

[John T Roberts]

WFAA Channel 8 did a story last night on the 6 PM News about the race between Austin and Fort Worth to first reach 1 million people.  Matt Houston is the reporter:

 

https://www.wfaa.com...7c-516ab32e7605

[FunkyTownTay]

https://worldpopulat...w.com/us-cities

According to the 2023 estimates on that page, Fort Worth has passed San Jose and is only about 4500 residents away from passing both Jacksonville and Austin to move up to the 10th most populous US city. This is *projected based on recent estimates,* so who knows how accurate that is.

 

It's been about 10 months since I posted this and the same website has now posted with 2024 population estimates. It now has Fort Worth at number 11, having surpassed Austin and still remaining about 5000 behind Jacksonville.

[Stadtplan]

Wow! Based on the number of new housing developments I bet we overtake Jacksonville soon for top 10, however Jacksonville is increasing also at a healthy 1.46% rate, I guess I just dont know that city well enough to understand the factors involved in their growth.

[Doohickie]

Wow! Based on the number of new housing developments I bet we overtake Jacksonville soon for top 10, however Jacksonville is increasing also at a healthy 1.46% rate, I guess I just dont know that city well enough to understand the factors involved in their growth.

Interesting thing about JAX, they are be far the least dense of the top cities.  Out of the top 300, they are the 277th most dense.  (OKC is even less dense.)  What that tells me is there is still open land around the city, which implies there won't be much growth through annexation.

[elpingüino]

Jacksonville is one of the largest cities in the US by area. 747 sqmi of land area, compared to Fort Worth's 350. https://en.m.wikiped..._cities_by_area

[Austin55]

Jacksonville is basically a county-city, where the city limits and county limits are the same except for a few small suburbs in the county.

[Austin55]

Speaking of housing units, I saw this handy tool shared in another urban-based discussion group recently: https://housing-data.vercel.app/

 

Cities ranked 9-12 in the World Population Review list, charted by units permitted per year. Jacksonville didn't have complete data, but Duvall County did, so Jacksonville's real numbers are going to be slightly less. Cities ranked 9-12 in the World Population Review list. 5 year averages. 

 

[elpingüino]

This week the Census Bureau released new estimates this week for counties and metro areas as of July 1, 2023.

- The DFW Metroplex grew by 152,000, the most in the US.
- Tarrant grew by 27,301, the ninth in the US. That's like we tacked on another Colleyville last year.
- Tarrant population is now 2.182 million
- Tarrant had natural population growth (births as opposed to relocations) of 13,010, fifth in the US.

All the data, https://www.census.g...ties-total.html

News articles,
https://www.dallasne...-new-residents/
https://www.star-tel...e286667310.html
https://www.nbcdfw.c...growth/3489168/
https://www.axios.co...ion-growth-2024

[Austin55]

The Census should release City-level population numbers for 2023 in May. Looks like last year they were released on the 18th. 

 

Place your bets! Where will Fort Worth rank this year?

 

[Doohickie]

I'll put Fort Worth in 11th, just behind JAX and just ahead of Austin and San Jose.  If you simply apply the previous growth factors, Ft Worth would move into 10th ahead of all those cities and just shy of a million residents.

[Austin55]

I think, for the 2023 numbers, we'll pass San Jose for 12th but still be behind Jacksonville and Austin. I'll guess right under 980k. 

[rriojas71]

I think Austin is going to have zero to negative growth this year.  The homes that were bought after the pandemic and before 2023 are almost all upside down now.  Pair that with several tech companies, like Oracle and other small companies leaving the state entirely and it isn't good for growth.  I have been reading several articles about the brief tech boom in TX and many of the employees said they were totally fine with paying state taxes in exchange for a terrific climate over the TX heat, which I totally get.  I'm sure Tesla will hang around after they finish with their current layoffs.

 

If they are declining and still continuing to build several tall buildings I am truly concerned for them and wondering how many companies we are going to have to bail out.

 

So like Doohockie mentioned, I think FW will pass both Austin and San Jose and fall right behind Jacksonville next year and pass it the following.

[elpingüino]

This week the Census Bureau released new estimates this week for counties and metro areas as of July 1, 2023.

All the data, https://www.census.g...ties-total.html

https://www.axios.co...ion-growth-2024

These county figures show that Tarrant County grew 3.2% from 2022 to 2023, Travis County (Austin) grew 3.0%, Duval County (Jacksonville) grew 1.4%, and Santa Clara County (San Jose) shrunk by less than a percentage point.

So for 2022 to 2023 at the city level, my predictions are Austin cracks the 1 million mark and remains in 10th place. Fort Worth grows to 987,000, easily surpassing San Jose and just barely getting ahead of Jacksonville by only a couple thousand people, and we move up to 11th.

[Crestline]

Voting for: Fort Worth advances to 12th place.

[Austin55]

Voting for: Fort Worth advances to 12th place.

 

Winner!

 

Fort Worth passed San Jose but is still barely behind Austin and a few thousand behind Jacksonville. 

More: https://www.census.g...-estimates.html

[elpingüino]

Second-highest population growth in the US:

[Austin55]

Just extrapolating the 22-23 trends on a month by month basis;

 

Fort Worth - 1,780 per month

Jacksonville - 1,172 per month

Austin - 372 per month

And then running those numbers out gives you this, 

 

 

So

-Fort Worth' May 2024 population is right around 997k.

-Fort Worth would've passed Austin in September last year, meaning by this point FW is likely #11. 

-Fort Worth is on pace to hit one million this August. 

-Fort Worth is on pace to pass Jacksonville also in August.

 

The "bummer" about that is, by the time the 2024 numbers come out in a years time, those numbers will be for July 1, just shy of August. That means we'll likely have another two years (until the 2025 numbers come out in 2026) that Fort Worth will "officially" be past a million and in 10th place. It's looking like the margin will be razor thin and within just a couple hundred residents making the difference. 

[Austin55]

Some further analysis

 

(all stats below are cities with a minimum of 200k residents)

 

Among cities with at least 200k residents, Fort Worth ranked

 

#6 in percent growth from 2022-2023 at 2.18%, behind Port St. Lucie FL, Cape Coral FL, McKinney TX, Frisco TX and Atlanta GA.

#2 in total numeric growth from 2022-2023, adding 21,365 residents, trailing only San Antonio who added 21,970

 

#7 in percent growth from 2020-2023 at 5.94%, trailing Port St. Lucie, Cape Coral, Frisco, North Las Vegas, McKinney and Souix Falls, SD. All the cities ahead of Fort Worth have less than 300K residents. 

#2 in total numeric growth from 2020-2023, adding 54,866 residents, again only trailing San Antonio who added 56,038

[FortWorthian]

Fort Worth climbs the list of most populous cities in US. When will it top 1 million?

 

By Jaime Moore-Carrillo May 16, 2024 2:23 PM

https://www.star-tel...l#storylink=cpy