I dug around over lunch and noticed that the May 2019 Project Update has some Transit Demand maps in it for 2018 and 2045. There are things on it that don't necessarily make sense to me, but I'm sure they are basing them on some source of good data and have better details below these composite maps.
It does seem like such a difficult projection to make since you are, I think at least, trying to expands your market beyond its base, so understanding the current base of riders only takes you so far.
I'd also like to understand the factors that are used to value the plans, since building anything out costs in real dollars, it seems like you should go beyond "bodies on a bus" as a benefit -- for example, if a particular set of bodies on a bus means that you can defer some large road expansion project, that possibly has an increased value. I recognize that some are just baseline mobility-as-a-service issues, for those with fewer options. It just seems like there needs to be some way to value the usage so finite budgets are spent most efficiently. And then there is the reverse, and how transit based development occurs.
I also hope that technology can notch up efficiency also -- it is great to have have schedule access, and to know when the bus will arrive, but here in the age we live in, it seems like we could go beyond that.
It seems to me that there could be something analogous to the way that elevator efficiencies are enhanced if instead of just calling for up or down, the system requests what floor you want to go to and guides you to the correct elevator to take, behind the scenes the system clustering multiple riders to get on the elevator car that takes them quickly to nearby floors.
I'm not talking for right now, but I think not way into the future, it would be possible to have the rider use their phone (and yes, I do believe we are getting closer and closer to a time when virtually everyone will have a smart phone) to designate where they are wanting to start and stop and a system clustering riders on smaller busses that basically make up their own routes (probably staying on the basic route roads, but not needing to make every stop) and maybe reducing or eliminating transfers. If 75% of the people on a bus are transferring to another route, why not just let that one bus keep going to the final destination, letting some people off and some people on, but keeping 75% sitting in their same seat -- it feels so artificial to say a bus named with one route is not allowed to drive beyond a certain point, and only a bus with a different name can go to the final destination. We have dynamic signage on these busses already. Although not full on-demand, just smarter and more efficient at using the hardware on the road and hopefully making for quicker transit with fewer transfers. Computing is always going to be cheaper than physically moving things.
What we have today is even worse than the conventional elevator -- at least that has up and down call buttons -- what we have for transit today is like an elevator that is just going to show up at a floor on a schedule, give or take a few minutes whether or not anyone is there. I'm certain that we can do better than that in modern times.