I don't see VTOL having an influence on normal passenger flights. It is a very inefficient way to get off the ground. Where land is available, conventional takeoff will remain the normal way aircraft get off the ground.
Suborbital will make a dent, though. If an aircraft is free of atmospheric drag, it can get around the earth much more quickly than current aircraft. The shuttle takes 90 minutes to orbit the earth (give or take). A craft that can get up close to that can get around the world in a small fraction of the time a normal flight takes. That was the whole point of the National Aerospace Plan (NASP) program back in the 1980s. Too bad it got canceled.
All correct. VTOL is pretty limited to the tonnage it can get airborne from initial lifting. As of today, suborbital is limited by $/tonnage that can be lifted. As an interesting aside, the RR Olympus engines that were employed by Concorde were actually more efficient at significant altitude and the higher the speed that they were traveling. Whereas the first part is generally true of all turbine aircraft the latter is a little counter intuitive. The problem was with Concorde as is still true today that at ground level (sea to ~ 30,000'ish; of course trying to get Concorde off a runway fully loaded at really high elevation points like El Alto would require runways in excess of 5 miles in length if it would get airborne at all) those types of engines are very costly to operate to get the weight airborne.
The last problem relative to suborbital flying lies with the actual definition of "flying". In essence, when you get too high the air molecules are so far apart that the "stickiness" of the air required to generate sufficient lift over the airfoils to maintain "flight" becomes impossible. At that point, a propulsion system which can maintain a higher thrust than the craft's weight is required and the craft thus ceases to "fly" but travels more akin to the characteristics of a ballistic missile. Such a propulsion system for a commercial aircraft is today beyond expensive and the government's experiments with scramjet and ramjet technologies have been sadly spotty. And then lastly from a commercial standpoint (passengers) you have the inertia question to answer relative to the acceleration phase of such a flight up to speeds like Mach 7+: it would not be a very pleasant experience for any but the best prepared (trained) traveler.